Bayesian network method for mission risk analysis under uncertain conditions

DOI:	10.11809/bqzbgcxb2023.01.023
Keywords:	risk analysis; Bayesian network; fuzzy theory; confidence degree; sensitivity analysis; heavy equipment airdrop
Abstract:	In order to solve the problems such as the complexity and diversity of the combat mission system, the difficulty of obtaining mission data and the strong subjectivity of expert evaluation, this paper proposes a fuzzy confidence Bayesian network model based on fuzzy theory and confidence degree to carry out mission risk analysis. Firstly, the prior probability and conditional probability of nodes are measured by combining fuzzy theory and confidence theory. Then, the posterior probability of the root node is calculated based on the reverse reasoning of Bayesian network and fuzzy theory, and the importance of the root node is determined through sensitivity analysis. Finally, the comparative analysis of the methods is carried out. The effectiveness and advance of the proposed method are verified by a case of a heavy equipment airdrop mission.
Published:	2023-01-28
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