Sensitivity analysis of warship air defense combat effectiveness based on Sobol index method

DOI:	10.11809/bqzbgcxb2023.07.025
Keywords:	combat effectiveness assessment; power index method; Sobol index method; Monte Carlo method; sensitivity
Abstract:	To explore the relationship between air defense weapons and equipment of a surface warship and its combat effectiveness, this paper firstly constructs indexes of the warship air defense weapon system. On the basis of index normalization, a warship air defense combat effectiveness assessment model based on the power index method is established. Secondly, Sobol index method is used to analyze the impact of each performance index of air defense weapons and equipment on warship air defense combat effectiveness when the global change is made. Based on the main effect index and the full effect index, the sensitivity ranking of each index is made, the key factors affecting the combat effectiveness of warship air defense are determined, and the influence of the interaction effect between the indexes on the combat effectiveness is analyzed. The simulation results show that the three indicators of air defense missile hit probability, system reaction time and flight speed have a great impact on warship air defense combat effectiveness, which provides reference and basis for the demonstration of warship air defense weapons and equipment.
Published:	2023-07-28
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