Risk assessment of UAV collision considering multiple factors

DOI:	10.11809/bqzbgcxb2023.04.040
Keywords:	safety assessment; velocity obstacle method; conflict resolution; Monte Carlo
Abstract:	This paper uses the Monte Carlo method to evaluate collision risks between a UAV and a civil airliner under the influence of multiple factors so as to evaluate and calculate the conflict resolution probability of UAV entering the fused airspace. Firstly, a mathematical model of UAV collision avoidance based on speed or course adjustment methods is established. Then, the composition and distribution of key factors affecting the positioning errors of the UAV and the civil airliner in the fused airspace are analyzed, and the simulation of the collision risks in typical conflict scenarios are conducted using the Monte Carlo method. The results show that: Both course release and speed release strategies can avoid dangerous approaches between a UAV and a civil airliner to a certain extent, and the serious accidents caused by the latter strategy are less likely to occur under the same error conditions. The positioning error of the civil airliner has a greater impact on obstacle avoidance. The minimum safety interval criteria allowed for different conflict scenarios under a given error condition are obtained, which can be used as the theoretical basis for the future setting of safety intervals in fused airspace between a UAV and a civil airliner as well as between electronic fences.
Issue:	Vol. 44 No. 4 (2023)
Published:	2023-04-28
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